ExchangeWire Research’s weekly roundup brings you up-to-date research findings from around the world, with additional insight provided by Rebecca Muir, head of research and analysis, ExchangeWire. In this week’s edition: Discrepancies in Facebook tracking; Digital habits of US voters; CTR through mobile; and an e-commerce Christmas.

Discrepancies in Facebook tracking

Discrepancies between Facebook conversion tracking and web analytics are costing advertisers insight into 192% more attributable revenue and higher return on ad spend for mobile campaigns, finds Rakuten’s The Facebook Measurement Divide.

There is, on average, a 3% discrepancy for attributable revenue between Facebook conversion tracking and web analytics. While the discrepancies between Facebook conversion tracking and web analytics for mobile are significant, they are minimal for desktop.

Despite the prevailing theory that cross-device – and the inherent challenges associated with cross-device measurement – accounts for this disproportionately high discrepancy on mobile, this is not the case. In fact, the cross-device campaigns analysed revealed that attributable revenue only comprised, on average, 5.6% of the total revenue generated across mobile-only, desktop-only, and cross-device campaigns, and as little as 2.4% for one retailer in the study.

For one client included in the study, the attributable revenue from Facebook conversion tracking could be as high as USD$4.7m (£3.8m) annually, while their web analytics would report USD$1.9m (£1.55m). Many advertisers apply a 2-3x multiplier to their web analytics attributable mobile Facebook revenue to estimate a more realistic return on investment for their mobile campaigns.

Digital habits of US voters

Donald Trump voters are more likely to be technology enthusiasts than Hillary Clinton voters, a study by Digilant finds. The report, titled the US Voter Persona Study, reveals audience insights about the preferences, insights, and behaviours of US voters who support the two candidates.

It highlights that baby boomer Trump supporters are technology enthusiasts who prefer to download their content. Conversely, baby boomer Clinton supporters prefer to read print magazines and books.

In fact, Trump supporters are generally more into their technology. They are identified as more likely to stream music and spend more time playing video games. On the other hand, Clinton fans take an interest in health and wellness and DIY.

The millennial audiences of both candidates are passionate shoppers. However, they have very different shopping habits and preferences. For instance, millennial Trump supporters are perennial heavy online retail shoppers. On the other hand, millennial Hillary Clinton supporters prefer to consolidate their shopping efforts, and they tend to make purchases on major shopping holidays such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

 CTR through mobile

More than half (51%) of branded content views are now driven by mobile, says research published by Polar. The study suggests branded content performance on mobile continues to be one of the fastest-growing and highest-performing channels for premium publishers.

CTR on mobile was 0.42% in Q3 2016, which was 113% higher than on desktop, and 27% higher than the overall global average. Overall, CTR rose by 7% in Q3 2016 from Q2 2016, and is almost on par with the CTR performance witnessed in Q3 2015.

Average time engaging with branded content fell slightly from the previous quarter; but is in line with last year’s performance. Branded content campaigns, and digital advertising in general, is a seasonal business. The majority of campaigns are expected to run in Q4, meaning we will likely see these numbers rise with the increased volume of content programs.

Historically, views have gradually grown over the course of the calendar year, culminating in a majority of views occurring during the busy Q4 holiday season. The research finds this trend has continued in 2016 as Q2 and Q3 accounted for 75% of views so far in 2016.

An e-commerce Christmas

Retail e-commerce sales in the UK will reach an estimated £16.9bn during the core holiday shopping period of November and December 2016, according to eMarketer’s UK Christmas season retail sales forecast. This represents 20.3% of all holiday season retail sales, up from 17.8% last year.

The increasing shift to buying on smartphones in the UK is contributing to the e-commerce boost during the festive period. Smartphones account for 36.4% of total retail m-commerce sales in the UK in 2016, still trailing tablet commerce. However, by 2020, the balance is expected to have shifted, at which point smartphones will account for 52% of the m-commerce total.

Overall, UK retail sales are expected to reach £83.2bn during the holiday shopping season in 2016, representing annual growth of 1.3%. This marginal rise is an improvement over 2015, when retail sales during the festive period declined by 0.3%.