It’s been a busy weekend of news and speculation. The rumour mill is in overdrive among the New York advertising digerati. Peter Kafka has heard from “sources” that Google is about to buy Invite Media - and the number being thrown around is reported to be between sixty and one hundred million dollars. Here’s why I think this deal will not happen? Most agencies are using DFA. Would it not make sense to integrate RTB into DFA and make it easier to buy from other inventory sources? Wouldn’t a souped-up DFA with “DSP” capabilities be cheaper to develop? I suspect that Google are already thinking about this – and we likely to see it very soon. As for these rumours, I have heard similar chit-chat earlier this year of DSP-related deals. M&A speculation is built into the DNA of this industry. I’ll stick my neck out here, and make a bold prediction. Google will likely build out its own DSP capabilities. Invite will likely be bought by one of the big holding agencies that it already has a strong relationship with. But we’ll see if I’m wrong soon enough. The other thing to consider here is whether big holding agencies will want to cede anymore control to Google. How relevant can they remain to advertisers if this happens? In that eventuality I can see most of the holding companies looking to buy a “DSP”.

Let’s suppose this deal does happen, how will the rest of the industry react? ExchangeWire shall now make some ridiculous (but fun!) predictions about possible repercussions:

- Microsoft will buy Appnexus: with its own exchange platform in the works, Microsoft will likely buy in DSP capabilities to counter Google’s move
- One of the big holding companies will buy MediaMath, X+1, DataXu, Triggit or Turn: the holding agencies will feel very uncomfortable with Google being in the DSP space, and will want their own platform.
- A possible surprise buyer will pick up a DSP: we could see Adobe, Ebay or – wait for it – Facebook buying a DSP. Think of all the data Facebook could leverage in a media buy. Its targeting could only be matched by Google.