It's probably the last thing you want to be seeing on your first week back: namely, another prediction list for 2012. But given that 99.5% of these lists have been overwhelmingly US-centric, it's useful to have some European perspective. ExchangeWire will not be held to account for any of these predictions except if all of the following are realised through the course of 2012. Do include some of your own soothsaying in the comments area.

1. Publishers Banding Together To Pool Data & Inventory

Watch out for a sizeable announcement in the first half of the year from a group of large European publishers looking to build their own publisher exchange. This will be the first of many. I expect a similar initiative in Germany, as the powerful sales houses look to close ranks. It won’t be pan-Euro - but instead start out country specific. There have been numerous debates on ExchangeWire in 2011 as to why publishers should/shouldn’t do it. But ultimately it comes down to control. Control over inventory, data and pricing. Publishers are within their right to trade on their own terms. I think a centralised exchange would allow publishers to put in place the right resource to get the best price for their (data-enriched) impressions. Managing premium supply when the marketplace is saturated with brand unsafe inventory could turn out to be a stroke for struggling pubs. European publishers would be wise to steal a move on the market now and partner with a tech provider to build their own exchange. If you think I’ve lost it, how do you explain the MicroYahooAol “partnership”?

2. Agencies Centralise Re-targeting; Causes Commercial Headache For 3rd Party Buyers In 2012

You might not think this is a major trend for 2012 - but you’d be wrong. Most ad nets engage in re-targeting as part of their media buying service. What happens when the various trading desks decide they won’t let ad nets re-target in order to prevent bid inflation across dynamic inventory? Most ad nets are now getting their inventory from the same exchanges and SSPs (fact!) as the agency trading desks - and why would it be in their interests to bid for the same users. This is also going to cause considerable annoyance to pure play retargeters currently working with agencies. I guarantee this will be a huge deal for the industry. But of course you will not see this in the trade press until 2013 but I assure you this will a) force some ad nets into a repositioning and b) speed up consolidation. Prospecting and “upper funnel” customer acquisition will become the marketing mantra in early 2012.

3. European M&A Activity Will Be Brisk

M&A activity in Europe will be brisk in 2012. The reason? Companies are cheaper here. They haven’t raised as much money as their US counterparts, and have arguably just as good technology. There might well be some big roll-ups as some big European players look to consolidate in their own market. You want predictions? Here are a few (fill in the blanks as you wish but don’t hold to any of these):

- A sizeable ad network is taken out in Germany by large US player looking to aggregate the powerful German sales house cabal
- A number of ad nets (CEE, UK) and possibly a SSP are acquired as part of a general Euro sell-side roll-up
- Some specialist vendors in ad verification, display analytics, attribution and mobile will be gobbled up
- A number of independent trading desks will be bought by either ad networks or large e-commerce players
- A large merger will create a Euro buy-side behemoth big enough to take on Google in the market here

4. The Rise Of The Bespoke Data-Driven Ad Solution

This will be a big theme for the year. Europe will never have a one-size fits all solution on the buy or the sell side. It has always been thus in the online ad space - and will continue to be. But the growth of the dynamic market and the evolution of ad tech are opening fresh opportunity for traditional industry players here in Europe. Publishers will turn more and more to ad tech vendors to help build them the tools to trade in the new environment. Whether it’s a publisher trading desk or a data management solution, no two publishers will look the same in terms of their “stack”. I’ll be told that independent consultants already exist and that tech partners offer a comprehensive “roadmap” solution. Interesting but not good enough. Publishers will be looking for that in-depth consultative layer from tech partners as they attempt to build businesses that will make the most of their data and inventory. You can already see the SSPs developing stronger relationships with their publisher partners. Also look for similar moves on the buy-side. I see the real opportunity around large e-commerce sites looking to bring re-targeting and prospecting in-house. They will want to build their own algos and tech to optimise for their specific vertical audience. Bespoke DSP, anyone?

5. The European “Cookie” Directive Becomes Irrelevant

After much procrastinating from industry observers and doom-laden editorials, the “cookie” directive becomes an irrelevance for the industry in 2012. Everyone follows the advice of the ICO and their respective European privacy bodies - and looks to be seen to “be doing something”. The governments see this as sufficient, and the EU leaves well alone. And that will be that. The cookie lives on.

And Those That Didn’t Make The List That Probably Should Have…

The Year Of The Mobile 2012

Facebook mobile advertising solution kick starts the mobile ad market In 2012. Sponsored stories are coming to mobile and a lot of agency money is going to flow into the channel. My advice to mobile ad nets: get building on that Facebook API

Amazon Leads The Charge Of The E-commerce Brigade Into The Ad Business

We are all aware of Amazon’s burgeoning ad business. Leveraging intent data to trade across its own managed supply and dynamic inventory is a smart move – and Amazon is putting the proper resource in place (not in Europe, though). If it works, expect to see more e-commerce players getting involved in the ad business. Well, it makes plenty of sense to me.

European Investment Community Will Fall For Ad Tech

You might not think it but it is almost bloody impossible to raise money for any ad tech-related venture in Europe. Not even early stage capital. While the US has numerous early stage investors from the likes of Brian O'Kelley, Jerry Neumann, Joe Zawadzki et al, Europe has few enlightened investment types - except for one guy in Germany. The current situation was described to me recently as a virtuous circle. We've had very few big exits here in the European ad tech space - and that has, as a result, caused a severe dearth of follow-on investments. But 2012 could herald a significant change. There is talk of US investors setting up a specific ad tech fund for Europe. And there's nothing like investment envy to kick start any market. Also look out for the ATI (Ad Tech Investment) conference in May 2012, when ExchangeWire will look to assemble senior ad tech executives and investment professionals to discuss the current investment environment for the Euro ad tech sector. Tough ask I know, but let's hope we see more exits and more investments this year for local players.

The Ad Net Model Powers On... Sort Of

Call it a publisher trading desk. Call it a publisher ad network. Call it super-charged audience extension. But European publishers are now realising the potential around the exchange eco-system. One of the ideas kicked around in 2011 has been for pubs to become media buyers themselves. In 2012 vertical players will leverage prop data, managed and dynamic supply to build their own ad net solution for the market. Demand will not wholly come from agencies. Smart publishers will have identified client direct opportunities, looking to a whole new pot of demand. This could well be the more interesting trend of the year. I also see an interesting opening for vertical ad nets to scale across Europe. Not possible before the advent of interoperable supply, there now exists a real possibility for those ad nets with specific vertical expertise (gaming, travel, auto, etc) to build pan-euro businesses. So the ad net model powers on - but not in the way many would think.