Takako Elliot, Mindshare's client director; and Malcolm Murdoch, Mindshare, director of digital data and performance, discuss big data, its potential, possible deficits introduced by the emergence of mobile, plus how attempts to overcome them can lead to a potential backlash from both consumers and regulators.

Big Data is frequently presented as the solution to the many questions facing the marketing industry at the moment. Data based media buying has grown significantly over the last few years, and already accounts for 14% of online display ad sales, and spend in this area is expected to triple in the next three years.

However its position as a cure all needs to be treated with caution. Over the next 18 months, a number of serious challenges will need to be addressed, for adaptive buying to have the right conditions to flourish.

The big problem is cookies, or rather a lack of them. Regulation is tightening up considerably; the ICO (Information Commissioner’s Office, a UK government body) has become much stricter about how cookie data is gathered on websites, with the need for consent now much more explicit.

Tablets and mobiles do not use cookies in the same way, and the massive rise in usage of these devices reduces the amount of trackable information, resulting in a drop in cookie data gathered across the industry. It is estimated that one-in-five people online are currently not tracked, and this is set to rise significantly, with some predictions as high as 50%, in next 12 months.

Meanwhile the privacy debate is waiting in the wings – and it’s likely the right conditions will fall into play in 2014, for it to finally become a real issue for consumers, as they finally realise that “stuff” about them is being collected all the time.

Stories such as those surrounding Edward Snowden, and Silicon Valley’s open letter to Barack Obama demanding sweeping changes to US surveillance laws, have started to gain traction. And of course there’s a plethora of small things that are finally bringing it home to consumers – the ever present cookie acceptance window that they’ve had to tick one too many times, Microsoft’s explicit advertising references around Gmail privacy issues, and the developments that we’re seeing in mobile technology which are likely to make devices even more central to consumers’ lives and identities.

The big players – Google and Facebook in particular – are working on trying to resolve the digital data deficit. They are both developing systems that can track individual consumers across every device used; all connected together by a single User ID, such a Google or Facebook account sign in. These will be powered by users’ habit of accepting any terms and conditions put in front of them by a trusted company.

While this registered user data will fill the void left by cookies, will it be available in enough time for the industry to continue its adaptive journey, and do we really want to hand yet more power to a handful of players? And what new fears will it open up for the consumer around their privacy?

Cookies are at least anonymous, whereas registered user data is specific to an individual. The current confusion may well turn into a future backlash, unless the solution is handled with extreme care and transparency by the industry.

What to look out for in 2014: Google AdID – rumoured to be in development, according to an anonymous Google source reported in US Today in late 2013. Further musings from Mindshare on data privacy can be read here.

ExchangeWire has documented the rising levels of public concern over data protection and privacy across Europe in recent weeks as national data protection bodies across the EU’s 27 member states attempt to thrash out cohesive policies.

Last month, consumer awareness body Truste published a survey indicating that public concerns over the issues have hit a record high. In particular, the revelations over NSA surveillance have raised the issue’s profile.

Similarly, the French regulator CNIL rapped Google for its data collection policies fining it €150,000 over its controversial unified data policies under terms laid out in its recently issued guidelines.

Meanwhile, Microsoft has been championing data privacy in an attempt to alert users to the extent of Google’s surveillance, and recently penned a deal with Nugg.ad to increase its footprint in Germany, where guidelines over data protection are notoriously stringent.