In her latest feature, Shirley Marschall turns her attention to retail media. Is this the future of commerce? How can the independents compete with the walled gardens? And, ultimately, is the retail media boom sustainable?

The retail media gold rush is in full swing…but cracks are starting to show. With Walmart’s ad business surpassing USD$4bn ($3.117bn) in 2024 and Amazon maintaining a dominant grip on retail ad spend, the landscape is shifting fast.

More than 250 retail media networks (RMNs) exist globally, yet over 50% of advertisers partner with just 5-10 of these. The battle for budgets has begun but is it sustainable, or are we approaching a tipping point?

The power players and market consolidation

Retail media isn’t just an advertising channel anymore; it’s the future of commerce. The top ten RMNs are absorbing the bulk of spending, while hundreds of others fight for scraps.

Walmart’s USD$4bn (£3.12bn) milestone shows that retail media isn’t just an “alternative revenue stream”, it’s a core pillar of growth. Yet, advertisers are spread thin, working with an average of six RMNs today, projected to increase to 11 by 2026 (Skai). This expansion is fuelled by FOMO, the fear of missing out, on valuable first-party data and shopper intent signals.

But as the number of networks grows, differentiation is key. Without clear value beyond on-site sponsored listings, many RMNs risk irrelevance.

The independent versus walled garden dynamic

As RMNs explode, two camps are forming (and blurring at the same time):

• The walled gardens (Amazon, Walmart, Target, Instacart)
• The independent players (Criteo, Kevel, Skai)

The challenge? Keeping the walled garden around the precious first-party customer data while fulfilling the advertiser’s need for interoperability.

The most interesting shift? Amazon - already controlling over 70% of the retail media market - is now opening its ad tech stack to other retailers. Even the strongest walled garden sees value in interoperability. By making its demand-side capabilities available beyond its own ecosystem, Amazon isn’t just defending its dominance, it’s extending it.

But Amazon isn’t just playing the retail media game, it’s rewriting the script. With its latest power moves, including securing the James Bond rights, it’s clear Amazon isn’t just selling ads; it’s orchestrating the entire show, blurring the lines between content, commerce, and culture.

When an RMN controls what people buy and what they watch, how much room is left for independent players? Or, to put it in Bond terms - will anyone else be licensed to compete?

Meanwhile, some retailers are already in the next phase, from expansion to correction. Microsoft, for example, discontinued its RMN ambitions, instead partnering with Criteo.

But with RMNs multiplying, one thing is clear: retail media needs an independent player to unify the chaos. Skai, Kevel, and Criteo are vying for this position, but will one emerge as the de facto RMN operating system? Or will Amazon’s latest strategic move make that question irrelevant?

More RMNs, same consumers

• Amazon dominates, but…

• Walmart, Target, and Kroger are all expanding.

• Best Buy, Home Depot, and even smaller chains are launching networks.

Retailers are launching RMNs at record speed, but there’s one problem: more RMNs don’t create more shoppers. Advertisers aren’t seeing a surge in demand; they’re just spreading budgets thinner across increasingly fragmented platforms.

The issue? Consumers don’t shop at just one retailer. Advertisers are now forced to manage dozens of siloed platforms, each with its own walled garden, increasing complexity rather than efficiency.

More RMNs don’t create more shoppers. They just create more fragmentation.

The first-party data firestorm: From coupons to an empire

Retail media isn’t booming because brands suddenly love retailer-run ad platforms - it’s booming because the deprecation of third-party cookies left them no choice. The industry’s old targeting backbone is crumbling, and RMNs are filling the void with a goldmine: authenticated, high-intent, first-party data.

The playbook has changed.

For decades, retailers traded data for discounts - shoppers handed over their information in exchange for coupons and loyalty perks. Now? That same data isn’t just fuelling personalised offers; it’s building a multi-billion-dollar ad industry.

Retailers hold all the cards. They own the point of purchase, the logged-in users, the transaction history. And unlike third-party cookies, this data is rich, persistent, and immune to browser restrictions. It’s no wonder brands are scrambling to plug into RMNs.

But the gold rush comes with complications:

• Will privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) (e.g., clean rooms, differential privacy) help retailers monetise data more effectively, or will regulatory pressure stall RMN expansion?

• Is the RMN explosion sustainable? Will smaller players survive, or will the cost of compliance and the need for scale squeeze them out?

• How long will advertisers tolerate fragmentation? Or will frustration with walled gardens push them to demand true interoperability?

Retail media isn’t just another trend, it’s an industry-wide power shift. But history tells us one thing: when data becomes too powerful, regulation follows. The question isn’t if RMNs will face scrutiny, it’s when and how hard the crackdown will hit.

Where we go from here: Who wins and who folds?

With over 250 RMNs in existence, a reckoning is inevitable. The top ten will survive, but the remaining 240+? That’s uncertain.

Just this week, Walmart reportedly asked brands to increase their retail media ad spend by 25%, despite stagnating product sales. For some advertisers, that maths simply doesn’t work. And you can bet Amazon is watching closely…one less competitor in the game is one more win for the empire.

What happens next? A few scenarios are already taking shape:

Mergers and acquisitions as weaker networks consolidate or fold.

A clearer divide between open and closed ecosystems, with TTD-like players rising to power in the independent space.

Advertisers demanding better standardisation, measurement, and transparency - or pulling budgets away from inefficient RMNs.

Retail media’s wildcard players: Expansion, consolidation, or collapse?

The unexpected players in RMNs tell an interesting story. It’s no longer just about big-box retail.

• Macy’s is betting on retail media to save its struggling stores.
• Alaska Airlines sees passenger data as the next ad frontier.
• Dollar General is monetising discount shoppers.

At this rate, are we one step away from fast food RMNs? Gym networks? Theme park ad exchanges?

Retail media isn’t just another trend, it’s a high-stakes battle for data, dollars, and dominance. The question isn’t whether we’re at an inflection point, it’s whether the next phase is evolution, consolidation, or collapse.